5G FWA ‘Killer Use Case’ to Bridge the Digital Divide

Fixed-wireless access (FWA) broadband connections are set to surge, with 5G-enabled FWA lining up to be a “killer use case” for driving adoption and bridging the digital divide challenge around the world, according to a new report from Counterpoint. Fixed-wireless access (FWA) broadband connections are set to surge, with 5G-enabled FWA lining up to be a “killer use case” for driving adoption and bridging the digital divide challenge around the world, according to a new report from Counterpoint. The research firm predicts FWA broadband subscriptions will surge from around 75 million at the end of last year to 462 million worldwide connections by 2030. High-speed 5G-based FWA connections will drive most of that growth, through 4G LTE technology will remain an important connection source across developing countries until 2024. “By the end of 2021, only one out of every three households around the world (excluding China) had access to fixed broadband. And only 25% of those households enjoyed speeds greater than 100 Mb/s,” noted Counterpoint Principal Analyst Tina Lu in the report. “With the growing work-from-home and hybrid working and learning trends, a stable, fast, and high-capacity connection has become imperative.” Lu did add that market dynamics will play a significant role in the overall 5G FWA adoption. She noted that U.S. operators like Verizon and T-Mobile US are pushing broad 5G coverage to support FWA connectivity, while some European markets are more focused on driving fiber broadband infrastructure “thus delaying the rollout of 5G FWA networks.” Outside of those developed markets, lower fiber penetration in areas like Africa, India, Latin America, and South Asia markets outside of China will drive 5G FWA subscriber growth. Other research firms and vendors have produced similar forecasts. ABI Research recently predicted that North America and Western Europe will drive 5G FWA deployments due to greater market maturity. Overall, the firm forecasts connections will grow at a 72% compound annual growth rate, hitting 69 million global connections by 2026. Ericsson’s most recent 5G Mobility report predicts FWA connections are going to grow 17% annually through 2027. CCS Insights recently forecast a 160% growth rate for FWA for 2022, hitting 7 million connections by the end of the year, and a staggering 83 million connections by the end of 2026. The research firm singled out North America as the current hot spot for the market. Counterpoint did note that market adoption will continue to be challenged by supply chain concerns impacting the availability and price of consumer edge devices. Senior Research Analyst Parv Sharma explained that while the pandemic accelerated broadband connectivity demand, supply chain constraints have limited the ability for the hardware market to produce consumer premises equipment (CPE) at lower price points. Sharma noted that 5G CPE prices remain above $500 in many areas, which is “well above mass-market levels.” Counterpoint does expect that pressure to subside during the second half of the year, with 5G-enabled consumer edge device pricing hitting “mainstream levels by mid-2023, and mass-market levels by the end of 2024.” “With greater scale and the maturation of the 5G technologies, we expect the [average selling price] to taper quickly after 2025, driving adoption even in low [average revenue per user] markets such as India and Africa, which face a significant digital divide,” the Counterpoint report concluded.